Ed,
Has anyone thought about or come up with a way to measure whether the slack from our "shortcomings" is being picked up by other church planting movements and para church ministries with similar evangelistic, Christ centered and Biblically faithful values?

So basically the law of diminishing returns is in play. For years we were increasing at a decreasing rate, meaning that despite the fact we were growing, we were actually declining.

The time has come where the decline has caught up to the growth and we will continue to gradually decline until such a time that decline will happen very quickly. I suspect, apart from repentance and the movement of the Holy Spirit, that will be within the next 15-20 years as the large numbers of boomers in our convention enter heaven.

That means we have a window of opportunity to transform our denomination, but it will take the brightest, most creative, most Spirit-led people (unfortunately, they're not willing to get involved because of all the nits being picked). It will also require a more agile, fast-moving organizational structure. And most of all, a return to the leadership of the Spirit and the confession of denominational sin.

The good news is that history has shown other times and places where decline has been thwarted and growth renewed. This can be seen in groups from English Baptists in the 18-19th centuries, and the rise of Methodism, among others. In the former a tradition was infused with renewed fervor for evangelism and missions; in the latter an unplanned (at lest by John Wesley) exodus from the Anglican church into Methodism happened. We may be seeing some of both in Southern Baptist life today. I for one believe we can see a new era of growth both in theological/biblical vigor and in evangelistic/missions impact. But I believe it will take the same kind of radical passion and willingness to change that sent Wesley and Whitefield into the fields and Carey to Asia.

Ed,

Thanks for all the information and the reminder to focus on the gospel.

Has Lifeway done a graph of our annual growth rate adjusted for the growth rate of the general population? For example, in a year where membership increased by 2% but the general population increased by 3%, the graph would show a 1% decrease.

How many years have we already been in decline if we account for the general population increase? An increase in membership by a % that is less than the % increase of the population is effectively a decrease.

Dr. Stetzer,

I am beginning work on a resolution for the convention in Indianapolis and I'm wondering if statistics are available for the percentage of churches that send messengers to the convention. In other words, how well are our churches represented at the annual convention? Secondly, are there statistics as to the number of bi-vocational pastors that are able to attend? I would like to submit a resolution calling for the implementation of a voting process on the internet to coincide with the webcast that is already available. Wouldn't it be fun if our future conventions actually represented our denomination. Let me know if stats exist or if I need to do my own study. Also, any input would be appreciated.

Thanks!

David Phillips wrote: "...For years we were increasing at a decreasing rate.."

This hits the "nail on head". The rate of change has been declining for decades (mathematically, the first derivitive of membership growth has been approaching zero). Clearly, the issues facing the SBC are not "recent" -- but on the same bent the "recent" changes have done little to reverse the trend either.

Which leads me to wonder if the SBC can "pull the plane out of the dive" before it runs out of altitude and just crashes to earth with a big thud when the current leaders die and all the next generation leaders (and I say LEADERS not the young followers who don't have any innovative ideas on how to reach out in a culturally contextual way) have chosen to invest themselves in other more missional endeavours and networks.

I don't think the current structure and leadership has the willingness or energy to change -- but would rather invest in preserving the past rather than working toward a culturally relavant future.

I am mid 40's and from my vantage point most of my peers (and those younger than I) have largely disengaged from the SBC and are finding other affiliations more satisfying.

1. I remember being told at Sunday School and ME training meetings at the time that, as a result of the 1998 decline, executives of the BSSB literally shed tears, realizing that the decline had taken place "on their watch" at that agency. Their efforts to turn the tide resulted in our current main Sunday School curriculum lines, among other things.

2. Doesn't the upswing in 1988-1991 represent positive effects of implementing Andy Anderson's Church/Sunday School Growth Spiral by hundreds of churches across the SBC? There is NOTHING LIKE IT TODAY recommended for use by either LifeWay or state Baptist conventions, right? (Growth Spiral materials are not even available if churches wanted to try something so specific and concise today, correct?)

Are these results possible again (if not, it won't be for a lack of unsaved or unchurched people living in the U.S.):

Baptisms Annually: 95% more
Worship Average Weekly Attendance: 44% more
Sunday School Average Weekly Attendance: 45% more
Offerings Annually: 60% more
Prospects Discovered Annually: 133% more
Outreach Contacts Weekly: 163% more
Outreachers Weekly: 140% more

Growth Spiral stats after 2 years' use by 350 SBC congregations in just one study (if had been dollars earned, never would have ceased its use--lowest return was +44%; but it was precious souls added to the Kingdom, not dollars . . .). Has anything about the U.S. so changed that the Spiral model won't work now if worked by us?

Hello from Australia! Thanks for the interesting graph and discussion. It is truly fascinating, and bears out some of your tongue-in-cheek comments elsewhere about preparedness for the 1950's.

I wonder if you have attempted to review the statistics for, say, 2000-2002 using the methodologies of the 1980's. Because if the trend through the 80's continued you would have passed into negative growth somewhere about 8 years ago. If, on the other hand, you look again at the data and assume that the increase in the early 90's represented a renewal in the same way that there was an increase in growth in 1971 and 1979, then I suggest that your decline this year is methodological and you may be accused of being a false prophet when the figures next year show a 0.2% growth.

I think your straight line estimate fails to address the true state of the graph, which appears to me to be a rapid decine in the rate of growth from 1950 to 1960 or 1970 (I don't think statistically it will make much difference) from 5% down to 2% and then a more sedate decline in growth from 1970 extending into the present. Taking into account the periodic renewals, the re-adjusted growth projection would result in another 2-3 years of very low growth before slipping into decline.

In looking at this I am assuming that there a serious methodological difficulties through the entire decade of the 1990's, represented by inability to get similar figures from one year to the next.

By any chance have you graphed baptisms? Surely baptisms represent the missional edge (internal and external) of the churches. Transfer growth isn't Kingdom growth, not least because if the person can be accepted without baptism they were almost certainly theologically close to SBC beliefs before they joined an SBC church.

Good info, Ed. Your study was being talked about after our associational meeting today.

Another missing factor is the de-churching of the South. The South is the natural habitat of Southern Baptists. I don't know if anyone has realized this or not, but young people (40 and under) are not filling the churches of the South. How many churches are filled with those that are 50 years old and older? That is not a criticism, but it does say something about our future. Not only is the SBC in decline, but the one part of the country where we have had any success is de-churching rapidly. Is it too much to imagine that in 20 years, the South could be just 10-20% churched? It is only around 25-30% churched right now, with the rest of the country at around 18% according to most recent numbers. That poll that says America is 40% churched has been wrong for along time.

Couple evangelistic neglect with a passionate adherence to unfruitful evangelistic methods and the impending death of the Builder and Boomer generations over the next 15 to 20 years and it is easy to see that, absent something amazing from God, the SBC will be down to half its current number of churches by 2025. Unless our churches wake up and become more faithful to God than to our precious traditions, the lamp will be taken away. I wonder if most of our people care.

Thank you for this good information. I have read a lot of blogs about this information.

It seems the data is clear, but the interpretation of it seems a little harder.

Unmistakable to me is the idea that we have been essentially plateaued now for over a decade. This is not a blip, it is a trend.

If you're looking for the GenX and GenY folks who actually still go to church, you'll find them across the street at the bible churches. You know, the ones who actually love homosexuals, aren't afraid of halloween, and aren't obsessed with squeezing another capital campaign out rather than give money to missions. Ones that respect the IMB, but don't think it's the end-all, be-all. Ones who are focused on the Gospel, where pastors admit they're flawed.

Anyway, I'm part of the downward %. You can find me in one of these bible churches now, not an SBC church.

The Boomer and older crowd has no interest in listening, nor changing. Anecdotal evidence is not sufficient (Draper, et al) to change my mind on that end.

Glad you guys are fighting the good fight. Last year I quit banging my head against this wall. If the older generation wants all of "this" so badly, let them have it.

Since we're vapors, time is too short to fight these battles. God is moving powerfully amongst the nations, drawing peoples to Himself. That's much more fun than duking it out with old deacons.

Peace

Every Southern Baptist should read a book called QBQ. www.qbq.com

It's a short read on personal responsibility.

I think some personal responsibility among SBC churches would work wonders.

"The good news is this... God is still faithful."

YES! Yes He is!

Alan mentioned the de-churching of the south. That is especially true in the cities. I doubt there is one example of a medium to large city in the south (from Raleigh Durham to Atlanta, from every city in Florida to any other southern state) where evangelistic growth has come anywhere near the population growth.
I completely agree-God is on the throne! I am excited about the future because many realize a God intervention and radical changes must happen (which is pretty much the story in past awakenings). God is on the throne, but He was also on the throne in Jeremiah and Amos' day.

Ed, I recently made the comment on my blog that these numbers would look much worse were it not for the influence of Landmarkism and people being "rebaptized" in many of our churches. One reader, an advocate of Landmarkism, believes the opposite to be true... that the drop in baptisms can actually be largely attributed to many churches ceasing the practice of alien immersion. Do you have any data on how the practice of alien immersion (or lack thereof) has impacted the baptism numbers?

Again, lots of good comments and too many to respond to. But, thanks for your good words.

Let's pray this year that we pull together and get focused in SBC life. I believe we can.

This is a church by church problem, not one the denomination can solve. Actually, it's a spiritual problem, but as far as the decline goes, it is a 50 year trend, as you suggest. Those who were won to Christ and brought into the churches in the evangelistic "heyday" of the 1950's are now our senior adults, and I think your own enrollment stats at Lifeway show the over 60 crowd to be a growing and predominant segment of our Sunday Schools and churches. Revival, a real, Holy Spirit movement, is the only solution I see.