SBC Messengers-- Age Analysis

Wednesday July 9, 2008   ~   18 Comments

Baptist Press reported today on the SBC messengers in Indianapolis. Registration Secretary Jim Wells has always done a good job with this thankless job.

The number of messengers is not encouraging, but since so many have already commented on that, I want to look at the younger messenger numbers for two reasons:

1. I was young a couple years ago (at least I was under 40).
2. We have done some research on age trends and I have opined on the subject earlier.

From the BP story today:

According to data from 672 messengers who provided additional information during the registration process, messengers 18-29 years old accounted for 5.95 percent of the total; 30-34, 4.76 percent; 35-39, 5.51 percent; 40-44, 5.51 percent; 45-49, 13.10 percent; 50-54, 14.73 percent; 55-59, 18.90 percent; 60 and over, 31.25 percent.

The writer, Mark Kelly, rightfully points out, "The percentage of messengers in the 18-29 category almost doubled over the 3.12 percent at the 2007 meeting in San Antonio." That's good-- and a step in the right direction. (This year, there were 40 messengers reporting their age that fit in this age category. In 2007 San Antonio, it was 20. In 2006, it was 53 and back in 2005 it was 106 for that age group.)

Of those who reported, 16.22% of the messengers were 18-39 year olds or the "under 40 leaders" that are often referenced and that we analyzed in our story earlier this year.

Some quick thoughts:

  • The good news is that it is up from last year... that is worth celebrating

  • The not-as-good news it is more in line (percentage) with the two years before, which were not-so-good years. (It is lower numerically as overall attendance continues to shrink.)

  • The bad news is that it fits where the trend line would predict (see graph below) and, following the trend line, is probably an adjustment to the trend line.

  • The "more bad" news is that this age group represented 24.33% the last time the SBC met in Indianapolis just four years ago. (And, in case you are wondering, it was 27.4% in 1992.)

Here is the chart from our recent research (not updated with this year's info):
attendee jpg2.jpg

Here is the chart that Scott McConnell, Associate Director here at LifeWay Research produced yesterday:
attendee jpg1.jpg

This year's numbers (in both catagories we tracked) is right where it is "supposed" to be, at least if it follows the trend line. The trend is declining for young messengers and growing for older.

Perhaps this is why, during a powerful moment from Ted Traylor's nomination speech, Ted encouraged the messengers to look around and be concerned about the lack of young leaders.

But don't worry... there is no young leader problem. It is just a figment of your imagination. (OK. There really is a problem and I am just reminding you in my always charming and humorous way.)

But, maybe this is the first sign of a turnaround... probably not, based on the trend line, but I am still just willing to pray and believe that it might be.

God is bigger than trend lines.

Here is what I said at the end of our research article on the subject:

"Oddly enough, in some quarters there has actually been a debate about whether the SBC attendance is aging and losing its young leaders," Stetzer said. "Of course, facts don't convince everyone. My hope is that now, finally, we will stop debating and instead ask the hard question: 'What is causing so many young leaders to stay away?'

But, as I said in my post-SBC analysis, I am still encouraged. Once people acknowledge the problem (and increasingly they did at this year's SBC), the more likely we are to focus on the real issues, not pretend everything is going "just fine, thank you."

I know that I am much like a broken record, but let me remind you of what I believe we need, from my earlier commentary on SBC decline:

First, we have to deal with the continued loss of SBC leaders. As we have recently reported in Facts & Trends, we have witnessed a serious (and increasing) depopulation of young leaders at our convention. Also, ethnic leadership remains absent after decades of ethnic change in America...

A second issue is the infighting which defines so much of the SBC--its meetings, its churches, and its blogs... Satan has used our incessant bickering over non-essentials to promote his last great mission on earth--to keep lost people lost... If the focus of every SBC meeting is a new controversy to be debated, new parameters to be narrowed, and new issues to be fought, the trend toward decline will only accelerate.

The third, and most important, issue is our loss of focus on the Gospel... We must recover a gospel centrality and cooperate in proclaiming that gospel locally and globally.

Feel free add your own thoughts, analysis, or ideas below. I am out speaking today but will get back later this afternoon.

Posted on July 9, 2008 at 7:56 AM   ~   18 Comments

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18 Comments

Jason Hayes
07/09/08 @ 9:20 AM

Very interesting stuff, Ed. Thanks for posting this!

Waddey
07/09/08 @ 9:36 AM

Your research tells me that our concern at the Tennessee Baptist Convention for the rural church's future is founded. Leaders at the T.B.C have estimated that less than 10% of our pastors would be considered young(35 and younger). Of that 10% only about 85 of them would be considered full time. I believe the first group of churches to feel the leadership vacuum will be small and rural churches. They are more vulnerable b/c of monetary issues and geography. Many of them already have a difficult time attracting and keeping young pastors. The decline in young leadership is real. It is not a figment of our collective imagination. I appreciate you pointing it out.

Matt Capps
07/09/08 @ 9:47 AM

Here is what I have heard from my peers, a variation of Nathan Finn’s post.

http://nathanafinn.wordpress.com/2008/05/19/the-questions-young-future-leaders-are-asking/

1. What is the deal with the International Mission Board guidelines? What is the real issue behind the changes?

2. Why is the SBC so concerned with the Calvinism of the younger generations? We do not see it as a hindrance to Evangelism.

But there are many students coming out of our seminaries having a hard time being placed in churches because they are more Calvinistic.

3. Will the SBC still be around in _____ number of years, if around 5% of the youngest group attends the annual meetings? Really, this is a problem.

4. Honestly, where does all our Coop. Program money go?

Bobby V
07/09/08 @ 10:07 AM

Great post. Although I'm just outside that 18 to 29 age bracket, my job is to find young leaders for starting new churches. The fact is, there isn't a shortage of young leaders, I talk to 3 or 4 a day who want to start new works. My heart aches for my tribe when I talk to these young planters looking for guidance and leadership and won't even consider speaking to denominations... ANY denomination.
As a young leader in a unique position, I'd love to hear your thoughts (and share mine) on the young leader crisis within the SBC.

Thanks for all you do, Ed! (I still need to get you to come speak at a Turbo sometime soon!)

Mike M
07/09/08 @ 10:24 AM

My question is how accurate can the results be on a voluntary survey. Why not ask for age info at the time of registration on all messengers. If only 672 actually took the time to fill out the extra survey form then that may alter the results. using the same age brackets as in the survey have all messengers give their age range at registration.

James Heffington
07/09/08 @ 10:33 AM

Ed,
I wonder just how the precentages breakdown when looking at leadership roles in the convention. For instance, what is the age breakdown of the Executive Committee? I wonder how much it would change things if the leadership of the convention made a serious effort to involve young people in positions of importance. Honestly, going to one of these conventions is what I would imagine it to be like sitting through an AARP meeting...Everyone on stage is over 55 years old.

I respect experience but I would like to see greater representation from the younger demographics...Younger guys are doing things different and have fresh ideas to offer.

James

Romans 11:33-36
07/09/08 @ 11:17 AM

Being a young Southern Baptist, and one who wants to go into the ministry, I feel I can comment on the situation. I believe the reason why there are so few young leaders is because of two possible reason. The first is that many young SB are becoming more liberal to moderate in their theology and hence they don't want to have anything to do with the SBC. Or two is that the young leaders who are conservative feel like many of the older leaders are to controling and tight-noosed on the SBC. Therefore not allowing young leaders to be heard for their input.

Thanks and God Bless

Will Jackson
07/09/08 @ 11:38 AM

Ed, I was one of the few 18-29 year olds who attended the meeting. I have been in a SB church since I was young and this was my first one to go to! What if our pastors and leaders actually invested in the younger generation and brought them with them?

The big joke was you could tell how important someone was by the number of young guys following them around. Shouldn't all of the pastors have at least someone with them? Why not use this intensive week as a time to teach them about the Convention as well as invest in them?

Also, if you want to keep the younger generation AT the meeting, I personally don't think that the Gaither Vocal Band is the way to go . . .

Tim Wade
07/09/08 @ 11:43 AM

Hi Ed:

Great Blog. I also follow you on Twitter.

I confess that I no longer consider myself a Souther Baptist, perhaps for some of the reasons why the younger crowd is leaving. About a week before you and made the comment that the SBC had lost the centrality of Jesus as its primary focus, I was writing about that very thing. As arrogant as it may sound, I did not need Lifeway's research to tell me that; common sense said enough.

I wish there was a way to correlate the data and see what type of SBC churches these young people are coming from. Being "an autonomous local congregation of baptized believers" I can not help but wonder if their churches lean away from tradition and are more postmodern, or if the kids are just out of step with the trend and want to be part of a traditional Southern Baptist Church. My hunch is the latter.

Because the church is made up of people I am convinced that the church is an ever evolving entity, if for no other reason than the fact that people change. Think of the term Digital Natives. I know of no SBC church changing so as to communicate with this group of young people at their level on their terms. The SBC as a whole is doing nothing to reach this age group and in fact are taking great strides to tell this age group to leave them alone and go elsewhere. How? By doing nothing. Nothing sends the greatest message to group than is unwanted when absolutely no one wants to reach them. Sadly this seems to be the message of the SBC. I know, the SBC is made up of autonomous groups of churches, therefore it is not up to the SBC but the church's to reach them. If so, then stop counting them as if they belong to the SBC. If the SBC wants numbers, let them work for the numbers.

If ever the SBC wants help, call me. We are reiventing our SBC church over the next four years to reach this year's freshman class of digital natives. It will be the most difficult thing we will have ever done. but as a college pastor, I will not stand still and watch my church family disregard an entire genertation just because the average age of the church is 65. Yes, we are old, traditional, semi-dead, and in a college town of 4000 students. Watch us closely.

In Christ,
Tim Wade
(Wading4u)

Joe Miller
07/09/08 @ 12:44 PM

what's a "messenger"?

Nathan Creitz
07/09/08 @ 1:07 PM

I'm a younger leader in the SBC who has planted a church in Boston and is now finishing up a degree at Gordon-Conwell Theological Seminary. I've gone to the convention about a dozen times and I'm only 30 years old. I didn't go this year or last because I was getting married (last) and was staying busy (this).

Anyway, I'm ambivalent towards denominational loyalty. I advocate for us to really think through our mission and purpose and join a denomination based on that criteria more so than due to our theological convictions. Our reasons for joining a denomination should be for unity towards service and not because of how many things we disagree with in some other denomination. Of course, there are some theological non-negotiables that can weed out some of the denominations that are extremely liberal. But there are a lot of theological issues that the SBC harps on that aren't as relevant. Women in ministry, alcohol, and even baptism will never be issues that mean the difference between someone accepting Christ or not. We've got to focus on what unifies us to other believers and stop being such an exclusive denomination. Living and working and ministering in Boston, I even hate the name "Southern Baptist". It just doesn't help anyone's situation.

Having said all of that, I just don't know the future for my denominational loyalty. I love the networking and the missions emphasis of the SBC but we go astray with all of our negativity. People think we are against the world when we are truly desiring to transform culture and make a positive difference, but you wouldn't know that by spending time at an SBC convention.

Anyway, I'm struggling to find reasons to stay Southern Baptist and until things change, I don't know if the younger leaders in the SBC will rally behind convention leaders. For my part, I am trying to make a difference in people's lives without ever mentioning my denominational affiliation. It's not embarrassment, it's just a sense that my denomination doesn't matter as I am doing work for the kingdom of God.

That said, I hope to make it to the convention next year.

Stephen Feather
07/09/08 @ 2:40 PM

Disclosure: I'm in the 35-39 range, married, 2 kids, and I teach 12th grade bible study.

First, thank you, Ed, for the data.
Second, Tim Wade, I'm with you, brother.

'Let no man despise your youth'

Looking at the breakdowns, our church would not send anyone in the 18-30 range to conference. It is assumed (and errantly) that this age group represents irresponsibility and a lack of maturity and as such could not be trusted to represent the local church.

Youth and college aged folks are viewed as strictly hired (or un-hired) help. They are great for clearing tables, but don't ever let them express their opinions around the adults. They don't have the certs, and degrees, and initials to have a valued opinion as of yet.

But if anyone does not provide for his own...he has denied the faith...worse than an unbeliever.

Most of us don't have time to take off and go play politics at the national level. My co-teacher and I have full time jobs to put bread on the table. Even with expenses paid, I still have 3 mouths to feed at home, as does he.

Additionally, my scriptural responsibilities to students is greater than any possible responsibility to the parachurch SBC organization.

Then it happened in the spring, at the time when kings go out to battle...

Many in my age group, and younger, question the relevancy of the SBC.

At a time when we are at war, let us call another set of meetings.

Let us alienate prospective missionaries by questioning their private prayer life (language).

Let us turn Landmarkian by questioning their baptism.

Let us tell our young folks that they need to wait until they have that seminary degree (from an approved, accredited SBC school, even Johnny Hunt is being chased over this garbage) before they can fulfill God's call on their lives.

Is it any wonder that our young people are leaving this convention?

They see man-made rules that hinder God's calling. They are told they have to meet some man-created criteria before God can use them. They are becoming independent church planters. Independent missionaries.

We aren't growing, we aren't baptizing because we have thousands on our roles that never darken the doorsteps. We have sold a gospel that requires no sacrifice or service. Our young folks open the word of God and see, GO: Preach, Baptize, and Teach. They look at the local congregation and see Sit.

Dr. Hunt (and I use that term because he put in the time to earn the title) and I may disagree on some theological issues, but I commend him for the Timothy Barnebas project at his church. It is proof positive that the LOCAL church CAN train its own. It is proof that our young folks ARE interested in growing the God's kingdom.

Our young people want and demand authenticity even in this post-modern world.

Young men will follow a leader into the heart of a battle if they trust him. If our young men (and women) are leaving the SBC, it is a trust issue.

Kevin
07/09/08 @ 7:57 PM

Great post!

A resolution was presented at the last convention that would have opened the door for online voting. I was excited about this, as it seems a logical way to increase participation in the convention. The resolution never made it to the floor :(

I think this is one example of a practical step that could have been taken to involve more people in SBC decisions.

Patrick
07/09/08 @ 11:00 PM

I was at convention and I am an under 30 SBC leader. I know a great many of those my age simply do not see a reason to go. Nobody has every given them a reason as to why they should go. The ones I know view it as a waste of time considering the work that is at hand.

So I suppose one of the things that could help with all of this would be for leaders to give younger leaders a reason to go. Or possibly the seminaries could find ways to help students go and experience the conventions for themselves. Just a thought.

Greg Cheney
07/10/08 @ 2:04 AM

Thanks for bringing attention to this important topic. I'm a 33 year old SBC pastor that has been ministering full time for 9 years. Please keep beating this drum. It needs to be heard!
- Greg from Faith First Fitness

Andrew
07/11/08 @ 3:21 PM

As a three-year consecutive attender (and perennial big-screen hog!), I have to admit that much of the non-business, non-voting portion of the Convention is boring to the younger crowd. I agree with Will Jackson that Gaither Vocal Band was a bad choice ("Between Jesus and John Wayne"....seriously?)

I wold like to hear (LifeWay Research idea forthcoming!) what the average young SBC member would want from the Convention in terms of form, style and substance....

Terry Leap
07/14/08 @ 9:46 PM

Great stuff Ed, and every whit true. Please keep it coming, even when others ridicule and guffaw at Lifeway Research.

Donald McGavran said years ago concerning research and its contribution to church growth that "if we are to carry out Christ's command to disciple all the peoples of the world, we must take off the blindfolds. Seminaries and denominations must do whatever research is necessary to find out the actual facts." He went on to say "At present the typical denominational executive, minister, or- I am sorry to say- theological professor is not keenly aware of the growth or decline patterns that mark his congregations and denomination." (Effective Evangelism, 75)

I believe McGavran was right and that the work you guys are doing at Lifeway Research is important. Please keep it up, and keep telling us the facts however hard they may be to report. The more we know, the more likely we are to desire genuine change as a denomination.

volfan007
07/16/08 @ 9:50 AM

Nathan Creitz,

I find your comments in this stream very concerning and troubling. When you say that we should join a denomination due to missions and purpose, rather than out of theological convictions, I find that very upsetting and very puzzling. Do you mean that doctrine and theology mean little when compared with pragmatism and "doing things for God?" That what we believe about the Bible doesnt effect our souls? our well being? our eternity?

My brother, I would contend that our theology and our doctrine is of the utmost importance, and for you to be a Church planter with so little regard for theology and doctrine is very troubling to me. The Apostle Paul was the premier Church planter, and he thought doctrine...sound doctrine...was of the utmost importance. In fact, in Thessalonica he started a Church, and he had to leave town after only a couple of monthes due to an angry mob of lost people chasing him out, but the Thessalonian Church had already learned much doctrine at the feet of the Apostle Paul. Just read I Thessalonians chapter 1.

My brother, I would sincerely hope that you would reconsider your view about the importance of doctrine and theology.

David


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