Last night, I presented data to the state convention newspaper editors of my denomination. (Over 1 million people subscribe to these papers across my denomination.) These editors are great people working hard to communicate truth in an often tumultuous denominational environment.
Thanks to some good work of our team, we put together this data and released it to them last night. LifeWay released the data this morning from our LifeWay news people. You can find the charts here.
Southern Baptists face further decline without renewed evangelism emphasis
Written by Rob Phillips
LOUISVILLE, Ky., - Southern Baptist membership will fall nearly 50 percent by 2050 unless the aging and predominantly white denomination reverses a 50-year trend and does more to strengthen evangelism, reach immigrants, and develop a broader ethnic base, according to data just released by LifeWay Research.
Ed Stetzer, director of LifeWay Research, told editors of the Association of State Baptist Papers on Monday that while SBC membership has risen most years - by as much as 4 percent in 1951 - the rate of increase has been declining by 0.06 percent per year, and the membership change trend line has now passed into negative territory.
"If the 50-year trend continues, projected membership of SBC churches would be 8.7 million in 2050, down from 16.2 million last year," said Stetzer. "Using U.S. Census projected population figures, SBC membership could fall from a peak of 6 percent of the American population in the late 1980s to 2 percent in 2050."
Stetzer quoted Cliff Tharp, formerly with LifeWay and an SBC statistician for 35 years, who said, "We have been slowing in our growth and have now passed into decline. We are right at the top of the arc and beginning to go down. But changes we make now can change that trend significantly. These stats are not new but it has never caught anyone's attention until now."
Stetzer said there are many factors that can contribute to such decline. One factor is that the mean age of the denomination's members is increasingly older than the general population, especially in the South, and Southern Baptists are reaching and baptizing fewer young adults. Second, Southern Baptists have failed to keep pace with the rising number of non-white and non-black citizens in the United States.
"The difference in the mean age of Southern Baptists versus the U.S. population shows SBC members older, especially since 1993," said Stetzer. "Prior to 2000, the difference in ages was not statistically significant, but we started to see a statistically significant divide in the age distribution of SBC members versus the general U.S. population after the turn of the century."
Meanwhile, the percentage of the non-white and non-black population is very different in the U.S. versus the SBC, said Stetzer, drawing from widely respected General Social Service data. Last year, for example "other" races made up 10 percent of the U.S. population but only 2 percent of SBC membership responding to the GSS.
At the same time, the portion of the U.S. population that is foreign-born is outpacing the segment of foreign-born Southern Baptists. In 2008, 14 percent of the U.S. population was foreign born while only 3 percent of SBC members hailed from other countries.
The gap is particularly evident in the South, where immigrants make up a growing portion of the population, especially since 2000. "The South is becoming increasingly multi-ethnic but the SBC is not keeping pace," said Stetzer. "Although Southern Baptists have done great work among immigrant and ethnic groups, they are still underrepresented in our denomination. Great opportunity exists for us to share the gospel and minister to people. Ironically, the world is coming to us more quickly than we are going to the world."
Stetzer also addressed the recent decline in baptisms in Southern Baptist churches, pointing out that while baptisms have fallen every year but one since 1999, the trend line since 1950 shows no discernable pattern. "Baptisms often have risen several years in a row, only to fall for several years following," he said. "The annual percentage change of total baptisms in the SBC since 1950 is essentially flat. That means total baptisms between now and 2050 are projected to remain roughly unchanged as well. We hope that the last few years of decline are not a trend but just a blip, but there is no way to tell."
Here is my solution: double a class every two years or less. A group of ten that doubles every 18 months could reach the entire world population is a little past 40 years.
Chart link does not work.
Probably, no other Christian denomination in the U.S. knows more about the Great Commission than the SBC; possibly, no other Christian denomination in the U.S. knows less about the Great Commandment than the SBC. Again, a GCE (Great Commandment Emergence), not a GCR (Great Commission Resurgence) primarily is needed. The Great Commission will take care of itself among us when the Great Commandment is a reality within us.
I agree with Josh, though: it isn't just reaching people for Christ--it's also keeping those who are reached for Him. Sunday School/small groups undoubtedly are the solution for that, but--unless the typical SBC Sunday School/small group becomes considerably more healthy organizationally than it is now--it appears there's really little hope for retaining/discipling the new converts a GCR desires to reach (all of which makes me think the present emphasis on a GCR is senior pastor/former senior pastor-driven; they seem to "get it" least).
I would suggest: the approach of Andy Anderson's Church Growth Spiral--the research on it demonstrates that there was no model like it before it, and there is no successful model like it since it! Actually, an implementation of the Growth Spiral in our cities by revived born-again Southern Baptists is the solution overall (i.e., large emphasis on enrollment; 1/2 of those enrolled annually are unsaved--and 1/2 of them are saved/baptized within 12 months; the alternative: 1 out of 400 only attending worship services are saved/baptized during the same time period--but few SBC churches have 400 attending their worship services AND they maintain weak Sunday School ministries, so those congregations record no baptisms year after year, and others do only slightly better).
Could it be that the SBC is primarily interested in continuing in its same-old ways and missing investing in key churches that are reaching the younger generation?
My question is, if there are still SBC Churches who are not releasing members from their roles even though the member may have already departed to another denominational church, how can we know if the stats of decline are not actually far worse than indicated?
Here is the link for the charts
http://www.lifeway.com/common/lw_cda_slide_show/0,2556,S%253D3%2526M%253D543,00.html
Ed, thanks for your research and information. Relevance is always in the forefront of my mind when i think of numbers, if they decline and souls are at stake we must try every attempt to meet people where they are and introduce them to a pure Christ
I think we are fooling ourselves to keep bringing up the 16.2 million number. We are too scared of declining numbers to actually report faithful numbers. Lets get that step done first and then we can really see what the stats tell us from this point forward.
If we start keeping stats with numbers that are not realistic then we will continue to chase a shadow that never was as big as we once thought.
I believe one of the biggest reasons for the Southern Baptist decline is that, as a denomination, it does not embrace life. Our birth rates are not significantly different than unbelievers. We may be anti-abortion, but we are not pro-life.