Here's my most recent article from the newest issue of Outreach Magazine. In this column, I address the issue of declining churches and what are the common factors that helps them succeed in turning around. Check it out below. Of course, if you are a subscriber, you have already read it. If you are not a subscriber, well, get on it by clicking here.

Networking for Comeback Change

Turning around a declining church is not easy. Most won't make the change. And, that should not surprise us. Sick people and sick institutions don't naturally change by themselves.

In Fast Company Magazine, two studies were compared--one in which "90% of heart patients can't change their lifestyles" and another in which 77% of patients did. The difference? The latter provided "support groups with other patients, as well as attention from dieticians, psychologists, nurses," etc. In other words, left alone, most patients choose death over change. When in a setting with relational support, the numbers are almost reversed.

And in Comeback Churches, we saw the same pattern in churches--those who changed often did so with help from others.

The Potential of Learning Community

What if more churches and church leaders decided to get real with each other and challenge each other to make a kingdom difference? What if even 20-25% of the 80-85% of churches that are plateaued and declining in North America decided that they were willing to do whatever it takes to see God turn their church around? What if a group of pastors decided that business as usual wasn't going to cut it--they were going to join together to impact the lostness in their communities?

For that to happen, pastors and churches are going to have to be willing to enlarge their thinking, network with other church leaders, and begin to establish some intentional learning relationships. Change is possible. Churches can make a comeback, but they are often going to have to look outside of their immediate church context for help. Left alone, we choose death over change, with others help we can make better choices.

Expanding Your Ministry Worldview

Often, one of the reasons that churches get caught in the trap of plateau and decline is that we are only looking at things in their own little fish bowl. We become comfortable in our own little environment, watching each other swim around in circles. As far as activity goes, things look OK. But, no new fish are entering the bowl.

To see a better future, we often need to "jump out of our fish bowl." If things are stuck or stagnant in your ministry, start looking around at what God is doing in some other churches and ministries in your community that are growing through conversion growth. They don't have to be churches from your denomination or group (really, you will survive if you build a few friendships with some other gospel-centered, like-minded churches). It would be good to look for some churches that fit fairly close to your theological beliefs and philosophy of ministry. And learn from them.

Create Leading Relationship with Other Pastors/Ministries

Then, here comes the tough part. Admit you need a little help and ask for it. In the book that I co-authored with Mike Dodson called Comeback Churches, we talk about the need for intentional, strategic leadership as a vital key for making a comeback. So, find some other pastors that are demonstrating that kind of leadership in other churches and ask them to give you some pointers.

Maybe part of the problem is that you are not a great leader, BUT that does not mean that you can't become a better one with some good coaching from a strong leader, or even some peer coaching from others on the same journey. Every pastor can improve leadership behavior and skills and we often do that by observing others farther along than we. I am not a natural born leader, but I am a better leader because I have let others speak into my life.

If you don't make the effort to step out of your fish bowl, it is not likely that anything will ever change. There is no shame in being plateaued or in decline. The shame would be in knowing that is where you are and doing nothing about it.

Build Accountability Into Your Relationships

No one really likes to hear this verse, but it's true--"No discipline seems pleasant at the time but painful, later on however, it produces a harvest of peace and righteousness for those who are trained by it" (Hebrews 12:11). If you can, build an intentional, accountable network of pastors who would like to see some things change in their lives and ministries. The only way that will happen is through being more disciplined.

One key to having a group like that make a difference is to have at least one pastor involved who has displayed strong, intentional, strategic leadership. Ask that pastor to guide the process by suggesting what issues to address and what books to read. Get real with these pastors and pray hard for each other. Maybe you need to start encouraging each other and holding each other accountable to be witnesses and share the gospel.
Where from Here?

Doing some of these things probably won't be easy or pleasant if you choose to do them . . . at first. But, what's the alternative? Swimming around and around and around in a little fish bowl? Here's the point--If you are stuck, find someone else who can help you get unstuck. Remember, your best thinking got you where you are.

So, if change is going to happen, it will probably not come from you, or at least you alone. It will come more readily when you and your church learn from others and thrive on the counsel of others. "Plans fail when there is no counsel, but with many advisers they succeed" (Proverbs 15:22, HCSB).

Feel free to comment below.

The SBC declined again this year in both membership and baptisms. You can read the news story here. There is some encouraging news about missions giving, but the membership and baptism declines are disturbing.

All one has to do is to look at the age of the messengers, the 50 year trend, and the current state of the convention to see things are not going well. The Conservative Resurgence restored and focused us on essential beliefs but did not deliver a Great Commission passion.

The churches of the Southern Baptist Convention have been home to me for all of my adult life. Southern Baptists are my spiritual family. I love our family. But our family is not feeling well today.

Today, LifeWay released the 2008 statistics from the Annual Church Profile. The ACP is our way of measuring how SBC churches are doing in a collective sense. We are a people who like to measure-- everything from baptisms to the collective value of congregational property. For good or bad, we have always been a people of numbers.

But today we are facing a set of numbers to which we are not accustomed. Last year, I said we "peaked" in our membership. This year, I believe that our tipping point continues to tip. Unless things change, we are about to enter a time when we grow accustomed to decline and think back to the good ol' days of growth.

On April 28, 2008, I posted a graph of our membership numbers beginning in 1950 on my blog and said, "our year-to-year growth has been in a constant trended decline, not for one year, but for decades--this is not a one year blip, this is a 50 year trend."

In that reference, I was speaking of the 2007 numbers with a "statistical warning" for us to heed. Today, I bid you an uneasy welcome to continued and ongoing trend of membership decline. Any hope for a "blip" has been crushed by reality. With fewer baptisms and a declining membership, the trends point to several years of decline in our future, save for God's intervention on our behalf.

We are a denomination in decline, at least in our membership and definitely in our evangelism and baptisms. The most rational decision now is to acknowledge its reality so we might deal with its consequences and discover solutions for our churches.

But, as we are Baptists, my fear is the proverbial witch hunt that will try to find who or what is to blame. Will straw men be erected; will new battle lines will be drawn?

I hope not. There are bigger issues and we need to face some facts: we face a culture turning its back toward us, a declining and aging membership, and young leaders who are choosing other partnerships.

Last year, some leaders tried to ignore the facts and buried their heads a bit deeper in the sand. Some skeptics of the ACP data from last year said it was simply a figment of someone's imagination. Well... that figment is looking more and more like our future.

Do these facts reflect upon our culture, churches, pastors, members, or the denomination? My check mark will have to be on "all of the above." And it reflects on me and my failures as well.

Is the culture getting worse? Sure it is. But we should be the ones giving a reason for our hope rather than hoping for a reason.

Do we have chronically dysfunctional churches in our denomination? Sure, but everyone has the one crazy uncle that comes to the family reunion.

Are pastors shirking their responsibilities? Some, but I generally believe in the trustworthiness of those in vocational ministry. They get beat up by plenty of others and I will not join the pile on.

Is it a lazy membership that is the root of the decline? The multitude who act more like spectators at a show than ambassadors of the kingdom certainly share the blame. But I genuinely love those in my own congregation and hope for the best in all believers.

So what do we do? There will be lots of answers provided in the coming days. And, it will be worth your and my time to listen and learn from others.

And, of course (and on cue), some will call for Southern Baptists to turn leftward theologically as the solution to our decline. And, I will wonder out loud-- does anyone read statistics? As I have written before, a left turn does not stem decline, it accelerates it.

So what do we do?

We cannot simply mandate how churches, pastors, and believers live. Our theological convictions of the priesthood of all believers and local autonomy of the church lead us to allow each church to heed God's will on their own. But on a denominational level, I believe we need to heed the words sounding from numerous places in the convention for a Great Commission Resurgence.

Our situation would be much worse if we did not have the Conservative Resurgence, but a Conservative Resurgence without a Great Commission Resurgence is an exercise in belief without action.

I believe this must be our wake-up call. Again. If not, there will be plenty more days like this in the coming years.

Last year, I quoted from Christ's message to the church at Sardis in Revelation 3:

I know your works. You have the reputation of being alive, but you are dead. Wake up, and strengthen what remains and is about to die, for I have not found your works complete in the sight of my God. Remember, then, what you received and heard. Keep it, and repent. If you will not wake up, I will come like a thief, and you will not know at what hour I will come against you."

We have been lulled into evangelistic complacency and missional inaction. We fought and won a battle over the Bible but are now struggling live it out through cooperation, collaborative missions, and personal evangelism. As Chuck Kelley has explained, Southern Baptists have become the new Methodists (no offense to my Methodist readers, please).

I am grieved, but I also see opportunity if we can ignore the responses that are soon to follow explaining how it is all going fine and we just don't need to worry. Those in charge know what to do to fix it. Instead, I think we need to see this as the bad news it is but also an opportunity to change.

It is an opportunity for discovering a regenerate church membership living on mission.
It is an open door to pray for God's reviving of the church.
It is the motivation for a Great Commission Resurgence for all Christians, in the hearts of pastors, through a church planting renaissance, and in our denominational structure.

But change does not come easy for us. For that matter, it does not come easy for me. To illustrate and conclude, let me tell you something funny about myself-- I have oddly-shaped feet. They are too wide in the middle to wear normal shoes. So, years ago I found a brand of shoe that fits and it is all I wear. Because they are hard to find and replace, I will literally wear out the soles of my shoes before buying new ones. My clue is normally a cold puddle of water accidentally stepped in. But the sting of the freezing water rushing over my toes usually motivates me to buy new shoes. Finding new shoes is a pain. It costs me time and resources. And I don't like those pains in my life. I don't like the pain of change.

Here is the principle: People do not change until the pain of staying the same is greater than the pain of change. And, neither do denominations...

So let me ask you a simple question: Are we hurting enough to make the changes we need?

If you are interested, here is the post I wrote a year ago. Neither my opinion (or the situation) has changed much.

Let me encourage you to answer a question in the comments below: What is the needed change and do you have hope that change is coming?

I hate to post over this morning's post about Barna's new research, but the American Religious Identification Survey (ARIS) has caught everyone's attention today as it points out the decline of religion and the rise in secularism in America. Bloggers, news outlets and newspapers are buzzing. The Washington Post's Michele Boorstein explains, "The percentage of Americans who call themselves Christians has dropped dramatically over the past two decades, and those who do are increasingly identifying themselves without traditional denomination labels."

Cathy Grossman and the USA Today have done their usual fine job of analysis. They summarize,

The percentage. of people who call themselves in some way Christian has dropped more than 11% in a generation. The faithful have scattered out of their traditional bases: The Bible Belt is less Baptist. The Rust Belt is less Catholic. And everywhere, more people are exploring spiritual frontiers -- or falling off the faith map completely.

Denominations and denominationalism are in decline, the cultural influence of Christianity continues to slip, more people are describing themselves as non-religious (now at 15%) and minority religions are increasing in popularity (like Islam and Wicca). Baptists are shown to be an aging group that continues to lose the younger generations and leaders. And, be sure to check out this very helpful interactive chart at USA Today.

The folks at ARIS have been gracious to let many of us see the research beforehand (embargoed until today), and it is a well done project with a solid methodology and an excellent sample.

What are your thoughts? What do you think this means for the church?

Some bloggers have already responded to The Tennessan article on SBC decline that I mentioned yesterday, including:

Michael Spencer (Internet Monk)

SBC Impact

Pat Hood (cited in the article)

I will add more if I see them. Feel free to link yours or suggest others below.

Here is my editorial in today's Tennessean, the Nashville paper. They asked me to write on the topic, "How to Stem the Decline of the SBC."

There are three editorials and some reader's letters: one from the editors from the paper, one from me, and one from Robert Parham of the Baptist Center for Ethics and Ethics Daily. Finally, there are reader's opinions.

The first editorial from The Tennessean editors mainly focused on the North American Mission Board and the Global Plan for Sharing, drawing from an earlier piece they wrote on the subject.

The second was from Robert Parham. Robert is a good (and prolific) writer and would be one of the more vocal critics of the conservative shift of the SBC. He stays true to form here and I am sure he will provoke many responses. Obviously, we would disagree on some important issues. Most obvious in this context: I would be a supporter of the conservative shift while he (as you can tell from the article) was not. (We call it the "conservative resurgence" and Robert would refer to it as a "fundamentalist takeover.")

Mine was third and I drew on an earlier blog post here and this post explains the trend. Here is mine in its entirety:

Stemming SBC Membership Decline

LifeWay Research recently reported that the SBC had declined in membership. The SBC growth rate has been slowing for decades but last year was the first year of decline in a long while--but trends say that more will follow.

The SBC I care about is in decline. Yes, it's part demographics (i.e. we're historically rural and such regions are in numeric decline) and ultimately changes have to be made at a local church level. But, many believe there are issues the convention can acknowledge and address to help turn around the decline. Denying the facts won't help, nor will a theological left turn, but there are things that need to change to reverse the decline.

When the news came out, some in the SBC stuck their heads a bit deeper in sand saying, "We're doing just fine, thank you!" They believe trying harder without change is best. Besides, they say, the SBC is not shrinking as fast as liberal denominations--which seems to me like bragging that our sunset is brighter than theirs.

On the other hand, some "finger waggers" will propose that the answer is to move leftward theologically. Yet, regardless of one's theological views (and that is important), no evidence exists to support that a leftward shift will grow a denomination--generally, the more liberal a denomination is, the faster it is declining.

Yet, a growing number of us believe that change is needed in the SBC. Let me suggest a few of those needed changes.

First and most importantly, the SBC must refocus on the gospel. The convention has become big, bureaucratic, and distracted by so many things--from politics to boycotts to programs. In the process, we have, at times, lost the focus on what was once the main thing: being, doing, and telling the good news locally and globally. We must return to our "first love" (Rev. 2:4), Jesus, and then show and share his message. We need gospel change.

Second, the SBC must address the continued loss of leaders. Ongoing denominational conflict has hastened the depopulation of young leaders. Furthermore, ethnic leadership remains mostly absent after decades of ethnic change in America.

Yet, such change will require an openness to other approaches to church and ministry from different cultures and generations. Openness will be difficult since preaching against other ways of doing church still gets the "big amen" at the SBC meeting-- even though the "Amen Corner" is getting older and smaller every year. If we share a common theology, we need to hold out a chair and ask new generations and ethnicities to sit at the table of leadership. We need leadership change.

Finally, infighting must not define the SBC. It is public knowledge that Baptists do not always settle their differences amicably at the convention or local church level. If "Baptist" and "bad-tempered" are synonyms to the average American, the trend toward decline will only accelerate. We need a heart change.

Can the tide be stemmed? Yes. Will it? Realistically, the "odds" are against it. But, I am one who believes that if we obey God's leading, He can continue to use even an imperfect people like Southern Baptists.

Interestingly, The Tennessean editors changed my title from "How to Stem the SBC Decline" to "SBC needs right kind of change." I prefer the original title much more than their new one and hope that change does not confuse readers with the multiple meanings assigned to the word "right."

Being the guy who writes the conservative evangelical position in the secular paper is always interesting (particularly in 500 words!). But, I hope I held up a commitment to biblical theology while calling for change in the denomination. You decide.

One of the big questions is this: is the 2007 SBC membership decline a "blip�? or a trend. The news story does not say. However, in my commentary, I imply it is.

Here is why.

As the graph below illustrates, the SBC has had a growing membership count for decades, but only marginal growth since 2000. From 2000 through 2006, the growth has been close to a plateau, registering .68, .58, .53, .42, .39, .02 and .22 percent respectively. You can graph those years pretty easily and see the trend. Not surprisingly, this year we declined.

Some have said this is the first membership decline ever. That is not true. There was one in 1998 and there have been others decades before. However, I believe this time is different. I believe that, unless we have a significant intervention, we have peaked, at least in regards to membership.

As this graph from my earlier post demonstrates, we saw a decline of 1.02% in 1998, much larger than the 0.24% decline in 2007. (Look closely at the graph below.) As argument goes, if we recovered then, we can do so now as well.

(for a full size version click here.)

Probably not (and I use that word "probably�? very intentionally).

Thom Rainer explained:

Although we pray God will bring revival and change, the trajectory is not positive. If current trends don't change, it seems we are about to enter a period of declining membership.

Why does Thom Rainer say such a thing?

Well, he has seen this:

Click here for a full sized version.

Cliff Tharp prepared it for us on Thursday. As the graph in percent change above demonstrates, our year-to-year growth has been in a constant trended decline, not for one year, but for decades--this is not a one year blip, this is a 50 year trend.

Click here for the news release.

Here is my commentary:

The End of the Beginning?

This chart has brought solace to many Southern Baptists for a long time:

(for a full size version click here.)

It shouldn't, really.