Here is my editorial in today's Tennessean, the Nashville paper. They asked me to write on the topic, "How to Stem the Decline of the SBC."

There are three editorials and some reader's letters: one from the editors from the paper, one from me, and one from Robert Parham of the Baptist Center for Ethics and Ethics Daily. Finally, there are reader's opinions.

The first editorial from The Tennessean editors mainly focused on the North American Mission Board and the Global Plan for Sharing, drawing from an earlier piece they wrote on the subject.

The second was from Robert Parham. Robert is a good (and prolific) writer and would be one of the more vocal critics of the conservative shift of the SBC. He stays true to form here and I am sure he will provoke many responses. Obviously, we would disagree on some important issues. Most obvious in this context: I would be a supporter of the conservative shift while he (as you can tell from the article) was not. (We call it the "conservative resurgence" and Robert would refer to it as a "fundamentalist takeover.")

Mine was third and I drew on an earlier blog post here and this post explains the trend. Here is mine in its entirety:

Stemming SBC Membership Decline

LifeWay Research recently reported that the SBC had declined in membership. The SBC growth rate has been slowing for decades but last year was the first year of decline in a long while--but trends say that more will follow.

The SBC I care about is in decline. Yes, it's part demographics (i.e. we're historically rural and such regions are in numeric decline) and ultimately changes have to be made at a local church level. But, many believe there are issues the convention can acknowledge and address to help turn around the decline. Denying the facts won't help, nor will a theological left turn, but there are things that need to change to reverse the decline.

When the news came out, some in the SBC stuck their heads a bit deeper in sand saying, "We're doing just fine, thank you!" They believe trying harder without change is best. Besides, they say, the SBC is not shrinking as fast as liberal denominations--which seems to me like bragging that our sunset is brighter than theirs.

On the other hand, some "finger waggers" will propose that the answer is to move leftward theologically. Yet, regardless of one's theological views (and that is important), no evidence exists to support that a leftward shift will grow a denomination--generally, the more liberal a denomination is, the faster it is declining.

Yet, a growing number of us believe that change is needed in the SBC. Let me suggest a few of those needed changes.

First and most importantly, the SBC must refocus on the gospel. The convention has become big, bureaucratic, and distracted by so many things--from politics to boycotts to programs. In the process, we have, at times, lost the focus on what was once the main thing: being, doing, and telling the good news locally and globally. We must return to our "first love" (Rev. 2:4), Jesus, and then show and share his message. We need gospel change.

Second, the SBC must address the continued loss of leaders. Ongoing denominational conflict has hastened the depopulation of young leaders. Furthermore, ethnic leadership remains mostly absent after decades of ethnic change in America.

Yet, such change will require an openness to other approaches to church and ministry from different cultures and generations. Openness will be difficult since preaching against other ways of doing church still gets the "big amen" at the SBC meeting-- even though the "Amen Corner" is getting older and smaller every year. If we share a common theology, we need to hold out a chair and ask new generations and ethnicities to sit at the table of leadership. We need leadership change.

Finally, infighting must not define the SBC. It is public knowledge that Baptists do not always settle their differences amicably at the convention or local church level. If "Baptist" and "bad-tempered" are synonyms to the average American, the trend toward decline will only accelerate. We need a heart change.

Can the tide be stemmed? Yes. Will it? Realistically, the "odds" are against it. But, I am one who believes that if we obey God's leading, He can continue to use even an imperfect people like Southern Baptists.

Interestingly, The Tennessean editors changed my title from "How to Stem the SBC Decline" to "SBC needs right kind of change." I prefer the original title much more than their new one and hope that change does not confuse readers with the multiple meanings assigned to the word "right."

Being the guy who writes the conservative evangelical position in the secular paper is always interesting (particularly in 500 words!). But, I hope I held up a commitment to biblical theology while calling for change in the denomination. You decide.

One of the big questions is this: is the 2007 SBC membership decline a "blip�? or a trend. The news story does not say. However, in my commentary, I imply it is.

Here is why.

As the graph below illustrates, the SBC has had a growing membership count for decades, but only marginal growth since 2000. From 2000 through 2006, the growth has been close to a plateau, registering .68, .58, .53, .42, .39, .02 and .22 percent respectively. You can graph those years pretty easily and see the trend. Not surprisingly, this year we declined.

Some have said this is the first membership decline ever. That is not true. There was one in 1998 and there have been others decades before. However, I believe this time is different. I believe that, unless we have a significant intervention, we have peaked, at least in regards to membership.

As this graph from my earlier post demonstrates, we saw a decline of 1.02% in 1998, much larger than the 0.24% decline in 2007. (Look closely at the graph below.) As argument goes, if we recovered then, we can do so now as well.

(for a full size version click here.)

Probably not (and I use that word "probably�? very intentionally).

Thom Rainer explained:

Although we pray God will bring revival and change, the trajectory is not positive. If current trends don't change, it seems we are about to enter a period of declining membership.

Why does Thom Rainer say such a thing?

Well, he has seen this:

Click here for a full sized version.

Cliff Tharp prepared it for us on Thursday. As the graph in percent change above demonstrates, our year-to-year growth has been in a constant trended decline, not for one year, but for decades--this is not a one year blip, this is a 50 year trend.

Click here for the news release.

Here is my commentary:

The End of the Beginning?

This chart has brought solace to many Southern Baptists for a long time:

(for a full size version click here.)

It shouldn't, really.